Independent Energy Pool

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13 April - 27 April 2026

Roundup of major energy and electricity news and developments

by Chris Yelland, managing director, EE Business Intelligence

1. Envusa's 520 MW Koruson 2 project marks milestone in mining decarbonisation drive.

Envusa Energy has inaugurated its flagship Koruson 2 (K2) cluster, a R15-billion, 520 MW wind and solar development on the Northern and Eastern Cape border, marking one of South Africa's largest privately developed renewable energy projects to date. The cluster combines 240 MW of solar PV at Mooi Plaats with two 140 MW wind farms, Umsobomvu and Hartebeesthoek. Around 380 MW is already feeding into the grid, with full commercial operation expected by mid-2026. Developed by Envusa Energy - a licensed electricity trader and joint venture between Anglo American and EDF Power Solutions - the project is structured to supply renewable electricity to a portfolio of large industrial users, notably mining operations including De Beers Group, Kumba Iron Ore and Valterra Platinum, through Eskom's transmission network using wheeling arrangements. Long-term offtake agreements underpin the investment, aligning with Anglo American's decarbonisation targets and broader industry shifts toward energy security and lower emissions. Koruson 2 builds directly on the earlier Koruson 1 cluster, a 420 MW wind development comprising three wind farms procured under Bid Window 5 of the REIPPPP. Koruson 1 also includes the major transmission infrastructure - notably the Koruson main transmission substation designed and constructed by EDF Power solutions - enabling large-scale grid integration and effectively creating a renewable energy corridor in the region. The two clusters illustrate the rapid scaling of private, hybrid wind-solar developments in South Africa, combining utility-scale generation with new trading and wheeling models. They also highlight the growing role of mining and industrial customers as anchor offtakers in the evolving electricity market. With further projects in Envusa's pipeline and ambitions to deliver 3 to 5 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, Koruson is emerging as a template for large-scale, privately financed renewable ecosystems in South Africa's power system.

2. Big renewable energy builds gather pace as solar, BESS and wind pipeline deepens.

A flurry of other large-scale renewable energy projects reported over the past two weeks indicates further continued momentum in South Africa's renewable energy sector. Mulilo has reached financial close on its 337 MW Middlepunt solar PV project in Free State, procured under REIPPPP Bid Window 6. The project is notable for what the developer describes as the lowest tariffs yet achieved under the programme. In parallel, Mulilo has also advanced the 380 MW Beaufort West Solar PV project in the Western Cape to financial close under a private power purchase agreement (PPA) in association with licensed electricity trader, NOA Group. In Limpopo, Voltalia has commissioned the 148 MW Bolobedu solar plant under a long-term corporate PPA with a unit of mining group, Rio Tinto. The Beaufort West and Bolobedu projects highlight the growing role of private offtake in enabling new generation capacity outside of traditional state-led procurement frameworks. Energy storage is also gaining traction. The R1.4-billion 76 MW / 304 MWh Mercury BESS project procured under Bid Window 2 of the Battery Energy Storage IPP programme is set to commence construction, targeting commercial operation in late 2027, and adding to a growing pipeline of large-scale storage assets aimed at firming variable renewable supply and supporting system stability. Meanwhile, industry data points to a substantial forward pipeline, with the Global Wind Energy Council indicating some 17 GW of advanced wind projects under development in South Africa. This suggests a strong medium-term outlook, albeit contingent on transmission expansion and grid access. These developments indicate that publicly and privately procured, privately financed and constructed utility-scale renewable energy and storage projects, with corporate offtakers and hybrid project configurations, are becoming increasingly central to unlocking new capacity in South Africa's constrained electricity system.

3. Meanwhile, Virginia and Oya controversies raise red flags for renewable project oversight.

An investigative report by News24 has placed a major renewable energy project under intense scrutiny, raising concerns about governance, compliance and oversight in South Africa's public procurement programmes. At the REIPPPP Bid Window 6 Virginia Solar Park, valued at R4.7-billion and developed by Red Rocket, multiple investigations are reportedly under way into allegations of BEE fronting, irregular construction management appointments, manipulated permits and labour violations by the Chinese EPC contractor and its subcontractors. Documents are said to point to systemic compliance failures, even as construction continues toward a 2026 commercial operation target. Red Rocket CEO Matteo Brambilla has described the coverage as inaccurate and sensationalised and promised a no-holds-barred, exclusive interview with EE Business Intelligence, which will be published shortly. In the meantime, similar concerns have emerged in respect of the multi-billion-rand RMIPPPP 128 MW Oya Hybrid Energy project in the Karoo, where a different Chinese EPC contractor faces allegations of visa violations, worker abuses, safety breaches and even fatalities. This project is now also at the centre of claims of “serious misconduct”, with labour practices and site conditions under growing scrutiny. The Virginia and Oya cases point to a troubling pattern: pressures to deliver large-scale projects at pace and cost may be colliding with localisation requirements, labour regulations, visa and work permit bureaucracy, and compliance oversight. While developers and contractors maintain that operations are lawful, the scale and similarity of the allegations suggest deeper systemic risks. The key issue now is whether these incidents are isolated contractor-level failures or indicative of broader governance weaknesses in project delivery. If the latter, regulators may face increasing pressure to tighten oversight across both public and private renewable energy programmes at a critical stage of South Africa's electricity market reform.

4. New deals and generation builds outside South Africa signal a regional power shift.

Beyond South Africa, several project announcements and milestones over the past two weeks further indicate the acceleration of utility-scale renewables in the Southern African region. Zambia is emerging as a focal point of activity, dominating the headlines with multiple developments aimed at diversifying away from hydro dependence. Most prominent is the US $315-million Leopards Hill project, where Globeleq has begun construction of a 250 MW solar plant paired with a 150 MW / 600 MWh battery system near Lusaka - set to become the country's largest hybrid renewable facility. In parallel, a separate Chinese-backed US $1.5-billion programme targeting 900 MW of new capacity highlights Zambia's push to rapidly scale generation and stabilise a system heavily exposed to drought-related hydropower shortfalls. Additional progress includes the commissioning of the 50 MW Mansa solar plant and financial close momentum around the Leopards Hill development, reinforcing a broader pipeline of solar and hybrid projects across the country. Together, these initiatives reflect a coordinated strategy to enhance energy security and support mining and industrial demand. Elsewhere in the region, Botswana has signed a deal with Oman for a planned 500 MW solar project near Maun, signalling growing cross-border investment flows into African renewables. The scale and structure of these projects - often combining solar PV with battery storage and backed by long-term offtake arrangements - highlight a shift toward dispatchable renewable capacity and bankable private-sector models. Hybridisation is increasingly seen as essential to managing intermittency and improving grid reliability in constrained systems. These developments point to a maturing regional market, where energy security concerns, industrial demand and climate pressures are converging to drive a new wave of large-scale, privately financed renewable energy investments across Southern Africa.

5. Reform, resistance and looming deadlines in South Africa's electricity market agenda.

South Africa's electricity market reform agenda has entered a polemic phase, with policy, regulatory and institutional tensions converging. Government is said to be preparing a new “single window” policy paper intended to consolidate and clarify the reform trajectory. It is hoped that the document will provide a coherent statement of the transformation of the electricity supply industry and a benchmark against which progress can be measured. This comes amid acknowledgement by the Energy & Electricity Minister that reform is complex and will proceed through a phased rather than a “big bang” transition. At the centre of reform is the unbundling of Eskom. A detailed implementation plan for the establishment of an independent transmission system operator (TSO) is due by August 2026, with the target for the independent TSO launch now brought forward to December 2027 - a key milestone in enabling a competitive electricity market. However, the rules governing trading of electricity are proving contentious. NERSA's revised draft electricity trading rules, dominated by changes unilaterally introduced by Eskom, and extending far beyond third-party electricity trading by licensed traders to include rules for generation by IPPs, bilateral private PPAs and wheeling, drew widespread outrage by stakeholders, and had to be withdrawn for rework. At the same time, the electricity Market Code and Market Rules remain work in progress at NERSA. While NERSA has finalised Grid Access Rules (GAR), Eskom's continued selective application of its own Interim Grid Capacity Allocation Rules and connection processes continue to delay projects and frustrate market entrants. Eskom CEO Dan Marokane has emphasised the need to maintain Eskom's operational and financial sustainability - a tension that underpins much of the current debate. Overall, while reform momentum is evident, the outcome will hinge on whether trading rules, grid access frameworks and institutional restructuring align to genuinely enable - rather than slow down and limit - competition and investment in South Africa's evolving electricity market.

6. Long-awaited Electricity Pricing Policy nears release amid tariff pressures.

South Africa's long-awaited new Electricity Pricing Policy (EPP) is back in focus, with Energy & Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa signalling that a revised framework is in its final stages and could soon be released for public scrutiny. The move comes against the backdrop of sustained electricity price increases, with Eskom tariffs rising by about 8.76% from April 2026 and further municipal increases of around 9% expected from July. These hikes have intensified pressure on households, businesses and energy-intensive industries already grappling with weak economic growth and rising input costs. Ramokgopa has framed the new policy as a potential “gamechanger” aimed at delivering a more “fair and affordable” pricing structure, while also maintaining the financial sustainability of the power system. Central to the reform is a re-examination of how electricity tariffs are structured and allocated across customer classes, including the balance between cost-reflectivity, cross-subsidies and industrial competitiveness. The Minister has tasked South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI) with supporting the overhaul, reflecting the technical complexity of redesigning pricing in a rapidly changing electricity sector marked by growing private generation, wheeling, trading and market reform. The new EPP process has been years in the making, with repeated commitments to address what government has previously described as “untenable” electricity prices. However, progress has been slow, and the absence of an updated EPP has left regulators and policymakers navigating tariff decisions without a clear, modernised framework aligned to market restructuring. Key tensions remain unresolved. Lower prices for vulnerable households and strategic industries must be balanced against Eskom's revenue requirements, municipal financial sustainability and the need to incentivise new investment in generation and networks. With the draft policy about to enter the public domain, scrutiny will centre on whether it can reconcile these competing objectives.

7. Refinery shifts and legal battles reshaping South Africa's liquid fuels landscape.

Activity in South Africa's liquid fuels sector over the past two weeks, indicates operational adjustments and intensifying structural tensions in a constrained and evolving market. At the supply level, Sasol has increased output at its Natref refinery while ramping up LPG production, responding to firm demand and price pressures in refined products markets. At the same time, the company is said to be positioning itself for longer-term transition - which some pundits call window dressing - having secured certification to export sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to Europe, signalling early moves toward lower-carbon liquid fuels. Downstream, structural shifts in refining and logistics continue. Plans to convert the former Sapref refinery in Durban into a fuel storage hub reflect the ongoing contraction of domestic refining capacity and a growing reliance on imports. This trend is reinforced by the strategic importance of storage infrastructure such as the Island View Precinct, which handles a dominant share of national fuel imports. However, this infrastructure that has become the focus of legal contestation. A High Court challenge has been launched against government's decision to grant 25-year lease rights at Durban's Island View fuel storage hub to incumbent oil majors, with critics arguing the move entrenches market concentration and limits access for new entrants. The outcome of the dispute is widely seen as important for competition, transformation and investment confidence in the sector. At the retail and demand interface, rising fuel prices are driving innovation, including the launch of LPG conversion options for vehicles - a sign of consumer and commercial adaptation to cost pressures. These developments point to a sector in transition: legacy refining capacity is shrinking, import and storage dynamics are becoming more central, and legal disputes over infrastructure access are sharpening. The trajectory suggests a more import-dependent, infrastructure-constrained and contested liquid fuels market in the years ahead.

8. Three-year 7% Eskom annual wage increase pact brings stability - but not consensus.

Eskom has concluded a three-year wage agreement providing for a 7% annual increase, bringing to a close months of contentious negotiations - but leaving a significant labour divide unresolved. The deal, effective from 1 July 2026, was signed with the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and Solidarity, which together represent a majority of employees in the bargaining unit. With these unions accounting for more than two-thirds of workers, the agreement is binding across the workforce, including members of the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (NUMSA), which rejected the offer. The settlement includes a 7% annual wage increase over three years, alongside adjustments to benefits and once-off payments, and is framed by Eskom as providing cost certainty and operational stability. The increase is significantly above current inflation levels, but below initial union demands, with NUM previously seeking increases as high as 15%. NUMSA's rejection and declaration of a deadlock indicates ongoing tensions, with the union arguing the offer fails to reflect Eskom's improving financial position and rising cost of living pressures. Eskom has pushed back on claims that higher increases were budgeted, emphasising affordability constraints and the need for financial discipline. The agreement also comes amid public scrutiny over executive remuneration, following reports of substantial increases in senior management pay, further fuelling perceptions of inequity in the wage negotiations. While the deal averts the immediate risk of widespread industrial action and provides a degree of labour stability, it highlights the continuing tension between cost containment, workforce expectations and broader financial sustainability at the utility. As Eskom navigates restructuring and market reform, operational stability and wage dynamics remain a critical - and politically sensitive - component of its operational and financial trajectory.

9. Joburg and City Power under strain as funding dries up and debts mount.

The financial position of City of Johannesburg and its electricity utility City Power has come under renewed scrutiny following a series of setbacks highlighting mounting fiscal and operational pressures. Most notably, the metro has failed to secure additional funding from French development agency AFD, a long-standing lender. The refusal is reportedly linked to non-compliance - which the City denies - with conditions attached to a prior R2.5-billion loan, including shortcomings in reporting and governance. The rejection comes as the City seeks to refinance debt and fund infrastructure, raising concerns over its ability to access external capital markets. The funding setback adds to broader financial fragility within the municipality, which has struggled to pass budgets amid rising salary costs and service delivery failures. Analysts warn that governance concerns and weakened creditworthiness could further constrain borrowing options and increase financing costs. At utility level, City Power is facing intensifying liquidity pressures. A diesel supplier has launched a High Court claim exceeding R5-million over unpaid fuel deliveries, underscoring persistent payment delays. More broadly, insiders indicate that the utility may owe suppliers over R1.3-billion and is intermittently struggling to meet monthly payments and arrear debt to Eskom for bulk electricity purchases. These developments point to a deepening cycle of cash flow constraints, deteriorating supplier relationships and rising legal risk. For electricity distribution, the implications are significant: constrained maintenance spending, increased reliance on diesel generation, and heightened risk to supply reliability. Johannesburg's situation mirrors a wider national pattern of municipal financial distress, but as South Africa's biggest city, its scale and economic importance make the stakes particularly high. Without credible financial recovery and governance reform, the City's ability to sustain reliable electricity services - and attract future investment - remains increasingly uncertain.

10. New power sector funding targets grid constraints and energy transition risks.

A series of financing announcements over the past two weeks points to strengthening momentum in South Africa's power sector investment landscape, with a clear focus on grid expansion, climate finance and sustainability-linked funding. Most prominent is a €200-million (about R4-billion) concessional climate loan from Germany aimed at supporting transmission grid expansion and enabling additional renewable energy capacity. The funding directly targets one of the sector's most binding constraints: limited grid capacity, which has stalled multiple wind and solar projects awaiting connection. The agreement also forms part of broader cooperation between South Africa and Germany on critical minerals, green hydrogen and battery value chains, with additional funding exceeding €270-million under discussion. This signals a widening of the energy transition beyond generation into industrial and supply-chain development. Parallel to sovereign-level climate finance, capital markets activity has also intensified. Standard Bank has closed a US $800-million (about R13-billion) sustainability-linked syndicated loan - the largest such transaction by an African borrower this year - attracting strong participation from international lenders. The facility links borrowing costs to sustainability performance metrics, embedding energy transition objectives into mainstream financing structures. In addition, German and South African organisations have launched initiatives to support workers affected by the energy transition, reflecting growing recognition of the social dimensions of decarbonisation alongside infrastructure investment. These developments highlight a maturing investment ecosystem where concessional public finance is being complemented by large-scale private capital flows, increasingly tied to measurable sustainability outcomes. However, the emphasis on grid infrastructure is telling. Without accelerated transmission expansion and system integration, the ability to translate financial commitments into operational capacity - and ultimately improved energy security - will remain constrained.

NEWS ARCHIVES

Archive: Roundup of major energy and electricity news and developments: 30 March - 12 April 2026

1. Three major court defeats in recent weeks expose Eskom governance fault lines.

A series of recent court judgments against Eskom has sharpened scrutiny of the utility's conduct, raising fundamental questions about transparency, competition, and abuse of both due process and Eskom's dominant position in South Africa's electricity sector. The latest case involving Mulilo Energy centred on grid access and capacity allocation. On 10 April 2026, the Gauteng High Court ordered that a decision by Eskom withdrawing grid access in a private procurement for a 240 MW solar PV project developed by Mulilo and granting the grid access instead to public procurements in REIPPPP Bid Window 7 developed by Scatec was unlawful and set aside with costs. This followed an earlier successful application by Mulilo for an urgent interdict restraining Eskom from executing its decision pending hearing the merits of the case on 9 and 10 April 2026. In a second far-reaching ruling on 23 March 2026, the Supreme Court of Appeal found against Eskom in a case brought by AfriForum, ordering disclosure of details in coal and diesel contracts valued at some R70-billion. The judgment rejected Eskom's claims of commercial confidentiality, reinforcing the principle that a state-owned enterprise must operate with heightened transparency where public funds and tariffs are implicated. The judgement has wider implications relating to secrecy surrounding other public sector procurements of oil, coal, liquid fuels, gas, nuclear fuel and renewable energy. The third case was the widely reported High Court judgment of 18 February 2026 in the dispute between Sibanye Gold and Eskom, where the court rebuked the utility for obstructive and anti-competitive behaviour. Eskom's reliance on wayleave processes, internal policies and safety arguments to delay the miner's self-generation plans was found to lack credibility, with the court pointing instead to commercial self-interest and revenue protection as underlying drivers. Together, these judgments point to a troubling pattern: a dominant utility resisting transparency, constraining competition, and exercising discretionary power in ways that undermine investor confidence.

2. Eskom seals deal of R0.62 per kWh with Glencore Merafe as NERSA scrutiny looms.

Eskom has concluded a negotiated price agreement (NPA) with the Glencore Merafe Chrome Venture at an electricity tariff of about R0.62/kWh, marking a significant intervention to stabilise South Africa's embattled ferrochrome sector. The deal follows weeks of brinkmanship, with retrenchment processes repeatedly extended under Section 189 as negotiations intensified. The agreed tariff is understood to apply for a limited, multi-year period (widely reported as up to five years), aimed at restoring the competitiveness of energy-intensive smelters facing closure under standard Eskom tariffs. Crucially, the arrangement is not confined to a single smelter. Parallel agreements have reportedly been reached with Samancor Chrome, suggesting a broader policy intent to preserve strategic industrial load. However, it remains unclear whether the framework will be extended to other producers, including those outside the immediate negotiation process. Funding of the discounted tariff is expected to follow Eskom's established NPA methodology, implying a combination of internal cross-subsidisation and system value justification, rather than direct fiscal transfers. The utility argues that retaining large, flexible industrial loads supports grid stability and revenue recovery. The agreement now shifts to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) who must assess and approve the NPA following its formal processes. This is likely to include stakeholder engagements and public hearings, given the material tariff deviation and broader implications for other customers. Key questions for NERSA will include affordability, discriminatory arrangements, precedent risk, and alignment with standard tariff methodologies. In the interim, the deal offers temporary relief to a sector on the brink - but its durability will depend on regulatory approval and the extent to which similar concessions are demanded across other energy-intensive industries.

3. Liquid fuel supply and price shocks reveal South Africa's fragile energy safety net.

South Africa is facing a renewed wave of liquid fuel supply disruptions and price shocks, with growing implications not only for transport, industry, agriculture and electricity security of supply. In recent weeks, reports of diesel shortages, rationing and queues at filling stations have emerged across parts of the country, driven less by absolute scarcity than by logistical bottlenecks and panic buying ahead of steep price increases. At the same time, global supply disruptions have pushed up crude prices, feeding directly into higher domestic fuel costs. While government has sought to reassure markets on availability, industry signals point to a more fragile system. South Africa's growing reliance on imported refined fuels, combined with constrained refining capacity, has heightened exposure to supply chain disruptions. The implications for the power sector are also concerning. Diesel remains Eskom's critical balancing and emergency fuel, used in open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) to stabilise the grid during peak demand periods and generation shortfalls. Although diesel usage has eased from the extreme levels of the prior year, Eskom still spent about R17-billion on diesel in 2024/25, generating about 2.5 TWh. Energy analysts warn that sustained constraints on diesel supply could compromise Eskom's ability to manage peak demand, particularly as variable renewable generation expands without sufficient storage or flexible backup. The risk is compounded by structural trends: ageing coal plant retirements, rising reliance on flexible generation, and a system profile with pronounced winter morning and evening peaks. In this context, diesel has become South Africa's last line of defence against load shedding - but one that is increasingly exposed to global volatility. Without urgent action to secure fuel supply chains and diversify flexibility options, recent fuel shocks may prove an early warning of deeper energy security risks ahead.

4. Renewables investment wave builds behind South Africa's energy transition.

A fresh wave of renewable energy investment announcements over the past two weeks points to accelerating momentum in South Africa's energy transition, reinforced by policy reform and rising private sector confidence. At the forefront of these, Mulilo Energy has signalled a major expansion drive, with investment commitments and pledges running to tens of billions of Rands to scale wind, solar and battery storage capacity. This includes near-term project developments alongside a broader pipeline aimed at supporting industrial customers through private power purchase agreements and wheeling arrangements. In parallel, Seriti Green has unveiled plans to invest about R25-billion in Mpumalanga, positioning the province as a renewable energy hub as coal generation declines. The strategy includes large-scale wind and solar developments, with a strong emphasis on regional economic diversification and job retention. These announcements sit within a broader R2-trillion investment pipeline, highlighted at a recent infrastructure investment forum, where major energy and electricity sector investments reflect improving sentiment as licensing reforms, market liberalisation and transmission expansion efforts begin to unlock capital. Development finance institutions are also mobilising. A partnership between the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) and the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) aims to support energy projects in special economic zones, linking power supply to industrial growth. Regionally, the African Development Bank has approved funding for a 100 MW floating solar project on Mozambique's Cahora Bassa dam, signalling expanding regional investment. While grid constraints and regulatory uncertainty persist, the scale of recent announcements suggests that investment is accelerating, with capital increasingly poised to flow where policy certainty and grid access can be secured.

5. Utility-scale battery and solar PV projects reach key milestones across South Africa.

A series of renewable energy and battery storage project milestones achieved over the past month points to continued delivery momentum in South Africa's power sector, with several projects moving from pipeline to execution and commercial operation. Mulilo Energy announced the company has reached financial close on its flagship Mercury battery energy storage project, a 76 MW / 304 MWh facility in the Free State. The project, procured under the Battery Energy Storage IPP Procurement Programme (BESIPPPP), will operate under a 15-year power purchase agreement with the transmission system operator and is expected to play a key role in grid stabilisation and renewables integration. The financial close follows closely on the project's commercial close, marking a rapid progression through key development stages and signalling strong investor confidence and execution capability. In parallel, Mulilo has also achieved commercial close on a broader portfolio, including a 337 MW solar PV project paired with the BESS facility, highlighting the growing trend towards hybrid projects combining generation and storage. These milestones form part of a wider portfolio expansion, with the company now holding multiple awarded storage projects across successive bid windows, collectively representing several gigawatt-hours of storage capacity. The pace of recent progress is significant. After years of slow project development cycles, the sector is seeing tangible movement in battery storage from procurement to financial close and construction - a necessary step in strengthening system reliability and enabling higher penetrations of variable renewable energy. While grid access and permitting challenges remain, Prof. Anton Eberhard suggests that the clustering of recent solar PV and wind milestone announcements is adding up for a record year in 2026. “We now need lots more battery storage for flexible power and ancillary services”, he adds.

6. Old coal, new rhetoric as South Africa balances energy security and decarbonisation.

Recent developments point to the enduring role of old coal in South Africa's future energy mix, even as efforts to position it as “clean coal” gather pace - albeit with significant uncertainty. At the centre is a new long-term coal supply agreement between Eskom and Exxaro Resources, securing feedstock for the Matla power station until November 2043. The deal extends a four-decade tied-mine model, ensuring base-supply continuity but effectively locking in coal dependence for nearly two more decades. Alongside this, a coalition including Eskom, the Council for Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR), the South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI), Coaltech and others has launched a programme to assess high-efficiency, low-emission (HELE) circulating fluidised bed (CFB) coal technologies. The initiative remains at an early feasibility and pilot stage, aimed at informing future policy decisions rather than near-term deployment. Eskom is also exploring carbon capture options at selected coal stations, positioning these as part of a decarbonisation pathway for its ageing fleet. However, such technologies are widely regarded as costly, complex and unproven at scale in the South African context. These developments reflect a dual-track strategy: maintaining old coal for system stability with rhetoric signalling alignment with emerging and/or still-conceptual lower-emission technologies. However, the tension is evident. Long-term coal contracts risk crowding out investment certainty for cleaner alternatives, while “clean coal” initiatives remain largely unproven and/or economically uncertain. In practice, South Africa's transition appears increasingly defined by conservative pragmatism rather than innovative pace - extending the life of legacy coal assets even as the economics of renewables strengthen. The result is an uneasy compromise: in South Africa, coal remains central to security of supply, but its pathway to meaningfully reducing emissions - and reliance on coal - remains both unproven and uncertain.

7. Ramokgopa's nuclear panel plan jars with an SMR request for expressions of interest.

On 31 March 2026, the Nuclear Energy Corporation of South Africa (NECSA) issued a request for expressions of interest (EoI) to test market appetite for SMR technologies and potential localisation opportunities in the country. The exercise is framed as an exploratory step to assess vendor readiness, deployment models and industrial participation prospects. “The EoI serves as the first stage of a structured selection process”, says NECSA chairperson David Nicholls. “It prequalifies respondents based on alignment with South Africa's nuclear policy and experience”. However, with some 80 SMR designs already announced or under development globally, the competitive landscape has shifted markedly. Against this backdrop, the window of opportunity for a uniquely South African SMR offering - such as the much-vaunted pebble bed modular reactor (PBMR) project abandoned in 2010 - may well have closed, raising questions about the realism of late-stage localisation ambitions without a clear, timely policy anchor. The EoI sits uneasily with the announcement on 12 September 2024 by Electricity & Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa of his intention to appoint an 11-member expert panel to advise government on nuclear power. The panel was expected to be chaired by Prof. Bismark Tyobeka, former CEO of the National Nuclear Regulator (NNR), and to include international nuclear technology and finance specialists. Its mandate would be to provide independent advice on the pace, scale and procurement approach for new nuclear capacity, as government reassesses long-term supply options amid electricity market reform and the energy transition. Yet, despite repeated references to the panel in public statements, there is little evidence that it has been formally constituted or has even had a first meeting. This lack of visible progress sits uneasily alongside government's continued signalling that nuclear power - including small modular reactors (SMRs) - will form part of the future generation mix under the forthcoming Integrated Resource Plan 2025.

For more information or to enquire about these articles, please contact Melani De Lima at m.delima@iep-global.com

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